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Aussie Property Market...Oh Dear!

RustyB said:
Not crashing (yet) but prices have flattened for some time, and sales have slowed. In that phase where seller's expectations have not yet adjusted to slowing demand.
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I've read that there is a backlog of housing that's up for Sale now.

Vendors often pull a property off the market and wait 6 to 12months... "for things to recover"

It generally gets worse and then a degree of panic sets in when the vendor returns to market.

One commenter in NZ mentioned how one of the main online property platforms launched a function 18 months ago that allowed you to view a properties sales price history. They blocked that function after Xmas...
 
andyoz said:
One commenter in NZ mentioned how one of the main online property platforms launched a function 18 months ago that allowed you to view a properties sales price history. They blocked that function after Xmas...
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Funny how people who benefit from speculation like to stoke up the market. This reminded me that I haven't seen any of those "how to get rich quick by investing in property" seminars this year. Stamp duty changes took the wind out of the Malaysian market last year. Maybe the central bank put the brakes on in time before the bubble got too big.
 
The herd is milling around wondering if the mantra they've been fed about property always going up is in' fact untrue.

They will soon realise indeed it is BS.
..then run for the tiny exit door that they can't all fit through...
 
We have to get to zero population growth in all countries and the sooner the better. Putting the environment effects to one side even in pure economic terms pop. growth is a giant pyramid scheme for the young to pay for the old (pensions and healthcare) and like all pyramid schemes cannot continue forever. A different economic model is needed.
 
This is comment from a person on one of the YouTube video channels I follow.

That's a house in Melbourne. The two things I take from it are:

- A house in Melbourne's Western suburbs was worth $1.3m at its peak....any other Melbourne expat would be laughing at this, and

- If they'd taken the $950k offer it's a much greater drop than the 10% average for Melbourne that commentators are quoting as a slight 'softening of the market'

If enough of this happens in the mid to outer edges of cities it'll be contagious across the entire economy. Then you have all the apartments to consider...

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wacko said:
We have to get to zero population growth in all countries and the sooner the better. Putting the environment effects to one side even in pure economic terms pop. growth is a giant pyramid scheme for the young to pay for the old (pensions and healthcare) and like all pyramid schemes cannot continue forever. A different economic model is needed.
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They may well happen in Oz if the economy tanks. People just settle for another country.

And the ones that do land would have done their research and won't be paying silly money for properties (even while some locals still are).
 
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andyoz said:
This is comment from a person on one of the YouTube video channels I follow.

That's a house in Melbourne. The two things I take from it are:

- A house in Melbourne's Western suburbs was worth $1.3m at its peak....any other Melbourne expat would be laughing at this, and

- If they'd taken the $950k offer it's a much greater drop than the 10% average for Melbourne that commentators are quoting as a slight 'softening of the market'

If enough of this happens in the mid to outer edges of cities it'll be contagious across the entire economy. Then you have all the apartments to consider...
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Also brings home how ridiculously expensive properties are, that's half the size of my conservatory!
 
dweezil said:
Also brings home how ridiculously expensive properties are, that's half the size of my conservatory!
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Just to clarify 36 squares = 3600sq.ft.

It's a big house but in Oz the last 20 years there has been alot of BIG mock Georgian houses built on small blocks.
 
Today I get adverts for Melbourne landed properties being pushed at a KL event in two weeks time.
Investment opportunity o_O
 
davidsrsb said:
Today I get adverts for Melbourne landed properties being pushed at a KL event in two weeks time.
Investment opportunity o_O
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There's alot of housing stock under construction that's gone past the point of no return....Fire Sale starts middle of this year I predict
 
andyoz said:
Just to clarify 36 squares = 3600sq.ft.
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Brain not quite up to this strange measurement. Whereas we don't go in for area measurements in this country, preferring individual linear measurements, I thought property overseas was either in square metres (Europe, e.g.) or even square feet or yards, but does anyone use these archaic but very British areas any longer ?

A 'square' = 100 sq. feet. Is that 10 x 10 ? This has got be totally nonplussed, Andy. (?)
 
Turns out the land size is 600sq.m.

At the initial high valuation of $1.3m then I'd take $1m as the land price element. A 600m2 site scaled up to an acre means an acre of land in that part of western suburbs was once 'worth' $6.5m. That's total Dreamland if you were brought up in Melbourne before all this madness...
 
Similar happened in Spain post 2008. Apparently 5 million new homes were constructed expecting Europeans to buy for holiday homes.

After the contractors were shut down the banks marketed them for - 'make an offer'.

As the UK population is continually growing the supply/demand keeps prices high. Along with the Greeks and Russians money laundering.
 
I still don't buy the argument that immigration automatically sustains prices.

If credit gets restricted then yes, houses are still are in demand....it's just at a lower price. Buyers are normally outbidding each other based on what their bank has 'promised' to lend them...not with hard cash.
 
Just a reminder of why I started this post. No country in the history of the Western World has survived such a screwed up house price to Income ratio.

This is just one of the metrics in Oz that looks f@@ked as far as I can see,
And they still don't appear to be panicking (16% down in Sydney...ah she'll bounce back!!)

Note the similarity with Ireland (just 10 years offset)...immigration sure didn't save Ireland...

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What is happening with rental rates in Oz? KL rents are down about 25% in 6 months (over supply and less inflow of ME refugees)
 
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