Oh Britain, what have you done (part ∞+6)?

[droodzilla]

A unicorn for every pot. We can have our unicorns and eat them.



I'm not seeing either party as capable of the "If managed properly" bit. It appears to be chaos, civil war, and party unity before country on both sides of the aisle. If the UK carries on in this manner "Drag on the economy" might end up being a wry euphemism for economic collapse.

It's been obvious for a while that if we leave the EU under a Labour government it will be on Norway(ish) terms. According to the majority of forecasts, this will reduce the annual rate of GDP growth by about 0.2%. It's annoying but it's not the end of the world.

 

[HairyHaggis]

i think we may yet have cause to look back with misty, rheumy eyes and think fondly of the days when we were threatened merely with a

"Drag on the economy"

. the way our current pol. reps. are behaving, we're all going to fall, squealing & squabbling over the cliff, with both main parties stuck in the glare of the headlights, focussed in inter and intra political in-fighting where politics has become the end in itself and the country can go hang.

 

[HairyHaggis]

If there is a clear appetite for a second referendum we should have one

god, there it is! abdication, fence-sitting. who is it to express an appetite if not each and every one of us. why and in way way is it defensible, to leave it up to others? that's pure jc that is

 

[droodzilla]

god, there it is! abdication, fence-sitting. who is it to express an appetite if not each and every one of us. why and in way way is it defensible, to leave it up to others? that's pure jc that is

Stop lobbing personal insults. My position is clear. I voted Remain but I respect the result and, personally, I'm not inclined to push for a second referendum. If you do, good luck to you but, if there isn't a genuine groundswell of public opinion for it (i.e. if it's seen as being imposed from the "top down") I see that as undemocratic.

 

[sean99]

It's been obvious for a while that if we leave the EU under a Labour government it will be on Norway(ish) terms. According to the majority of forecasts, this will reduce the annual rate of GDP growth by about 0.2%. It's annoying but it's not the end of the world.

The 0.2% is the rosiest of rosy projections and assumes a trade deal will be signed with the US. How likely is the JC Labour party to sign a trade deal with the US ?

https://www.ft.com/content/b3d35136-0543-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

"With the new analysis, a trade deal with the US is concluded in all the Brexit scenarios, offsetting some of the lost business with the EU when Britain leaves the single market and customs union."

 

[HairyHaggis]

i'm not clear in what way i insulted you? i questioned your position? anyway, won't be drawn into that sort of thing. if i offended, i apologise

...besides, i don't 'lob', i 'post'

 

[ff1d1l]

if there isn't a genuine groundswell of public opinion for it (i.e. if it's seen as being imposed from the "top down") I see that as undemocratic.

As in the first ref?

I was just gagging for it, it was my dearest wish, and that of my friends and family too.
How clever of that nice Mr Cameron to so accurately gauge the nation's zeitgeist.
If only that Mr Corbyn was blessed with a similar sensitivity...

How about the idea that we need a second referendum because we're running out of tributaries up Shit Creek to explore?

 

[gassor]

It's been obvious for a while that if we leave the EU under a Labour government it will be on Norway(ish) terms. According to the majority of forecasts, this will reduce the annual rate of GDP growth by about 0.2%. It's annoying but it's not the end of the world.

Drood you sound increasingly desperate. For a start Corbyn has ruled out a Norway-style Brexit himself and also said the free movement of workers is dead. Earlier you mentioned quantitative studies that show Brexit would only be a slight drag on the economy, unless you accept the IEA Alice in Wonderland conclusions I don't know what you are referring to. The most likely outcome is a hard Brexit and this would do immeasurable damage with one region predicted to suffer a 16% downturn in economic growth.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...my-gdp-north-east-west-midlands-a8199746.html

 

[Seeker_UK]

Check the projections and the quantitative analysis. If managed properly, Brexit will be a drag on the economy but not a disaster.

*Any* downward trajectory of the UK economy would be a bad thing, especially as some of the solutions that Labour are putting forward require spending and / or borrowing which depend on the healthiest possible UK economy.

Austerity is a *much* bigger issue.

It's not a binary choice.

 

[Seeker_UK]

AIUI, the Norway arrangement is paying EU-like subs, accepting EU rules and having stuff all influence on those rules. How is that better than staying in?

 

[Seanm]

Starmer's speech got a standing ovation, and the biggest cheer of the Conference so far, after he said the People's Vote could include an option of staying in the EU and nothing was off the table.

You call his speech strategic smoke blowing. However my guess is if Corbyn, McDonnell and other other Lexiteers, failed to include a leaving the EU option, it would split the Labour Party in two. I certainly wouldn't vote for it and reckon the majority of Labour Party members have the same attitude.

Brexit is far more important than any other issue the Labour leaders will deal with at the Conference. They know this, but are still trying to force Brexit through on the sly.

Jack

I didn't mean it disparagingly: strategic smoke blowing is about the best we can hope for until people accept reality.

FWIW I don't think Labour are likely to split on this, although that will always be the story the moment the media clock any kind of dissensus on the left. Most members, right and left, are pro-remain, with a small Lexit minority, and a lot of remainers who feel the result of the referendum should be respected. But in the conversations I've had it's a matter of (sometimes heated) disagreement rather than outright antagonism, which it certainly has been between right and left. The whole left are focused on getting a Corbyn government and ending austerity. Brexit is well down the list, after housing, Windrush, public services, work, welfare. Sorry.

 

[ff1d1l]

I didn't mean it disparagingly: strategic smoke blowing is about the best we can hope for until people accept reality.

FWIW I don't think Labour are likely to split on this, although that will always be the story the moment the media clock any kind of dissensus on the left. Most members, right and left, are pro-remain, with a small Lexit minority, and a lot of remainers who feel the result of the referendum should be respected. But in the conversations I've had it's a matter of (sometimes heated) disagreement rather than outright antagonism, which it certainly has been between right and left. The whole left are focused on getting a Corbyn government and ending austerity. Brexit is well down the list, after housing, Windrush, public services, work, welfare. Sorry.

So I imagined that KS ovation?
Sorry.

 

[Seanm]

So I imagined that KS ovation?
Sorry.

They were glad to hear it. It doesn't mean they're all going to leave the party if it doesn't come off. As with the rule changes: everyone's disappointed, some angry, but the general attitude is crack on. Some great stuff coming out of conference and that's what people are focusing on.

 

[Tony L]

My position is clear. I voted Remain but I respect the result and, personally, I'm not inclined to push for a second referendum.

My position is also clear. I voted ‘remain’ and have absolutely zero respect for the result as it was a stupid, racist and downright nasty right-wing electoral stunt based on lies, misselling, xenophobia, fraudulent spending and illegal data manipulation. It should be treated like the the election fraud it is and A50 should be rescinded immediately. In no other walk of life would such blatantly fraudulent behaviour be tolerated, so why should we accept it in our politics?

 

[ff1d1l]

They were glad to hear it. It doesn't mean they're all going to leave the party if it doesn't come off. As with the rule changes: everyone's disappointed, some angry, but the general attitude is crack on. Some great stuff coming out of conference and that's what people are focusing on.

But they might leave the party if they felt their views were sidelined by an unrepresentative cabal at the top.
As they are.

 

[Cav]

My position is also clear. I voted ‘remain’ and have absolutely zero respect for the result as it was a stupid, racist and downright nasty right-wing electoral stunt based on lies, misselling, xenophobia, fraudulent spending and illegal data manipulation. It should be treated like the the election fraud it is and A50 should be rescinded immediately. In no other walk of life would such blatantly fraudulent behaviour be tolerated, so why should we accept it in our politics?

Crowd fund a Judicial Review if the campaign was so rigged. You must accept though that racist voters (how many of the total leave vote?) will vote leave again.

 

[Seanm]

But they might leave the party if they felt their views were sidelined by an unrepresentative cabal at the top.
As they are.

Then there would have been a mass walk out after the rule change let down.

It's not going to happen: we're focused. Hard Remainers are a small minority, most of whom would never dream of voting for a party considering, e.g., an employee ownership scheme. If that's not you then you're a minority of a minority. Perfectly honourable position to be in but if you imagine the left is going to flock to you in their thousands you're going to be disappointed.

 

[tuga]

So by your logic, fix austerity first and then onto Brexit?

Good idea. Postpone Brexit for a couple of centuries...

 

[gassor]

AIUI, the Norway arrangement is paying EU-like subs, accepting EU rules and having stuff all influence on those rules. How is that better than staying in?

It's not and would mean the UK throwing 800m euros into Brussels every year not knowing what we'd get out in the way of grants etc. Not what most folk thought Brexit meant.

 

[droodzilla]

The 0.2% is the rosiest of rosy projections and assumes a trade deal will be signed with the US. How likely is the JC Labour party to sign a trade deal with the US ?

https://www.ft.com/content/b3d35136-0543-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

"With the new analysis, a trade deal with the US is concluded in all the Brexit scenarios, offsetting some of the lost business with the EU when Britain leaves the single market and customs union."

Sean, that's precisely the analysis I've been referring to. I assume the new projections are the ones that include assumptions about a trade deal with the US. When you crunch the numbers, even the very worst case illustrated in the chart (-8 under WT), old forecast) equates to an annual reduction in the GDP growth rate of 0.4%. Anything better obviously has less impact and the eminently achievable EEA option equates to around a 0.2% reduction in the rate of growth in GDP per year. In all scenarios, the UK economy continues to grow.