The forthcoming demise of the Conservative minority government, May 2017-?

[Seanm]

I’d not be anything like so confident! The financial collapse of 2008 left the nation hugely damaged with very little structural resilience. This is why we have been flat-lining on the cusp of recession ever since. Interest rates are already at close to 0% and our banks remain over-leveraged. Basically most of the tricks used to keep the wheels on last time can’t be used again as there are no interest rates left to cut. Add to that all the problems and increased costs of border tariffs, loss of industry, inflation, job losses, the loss of much of the London financial serices industry etc etc will bring. We are currently just 0.3% away from a recession, we have no answers to the fantasy NI border, we have nothing to offer our large EU-facing industries etc. It really would not take too much of a diwnturn to swing the banks into a precariously negative position and Stirling itself may be at risk (it cost £bns to save it from collapse in 2008, a price we are still paying).

As a random example just think of how a hard-Tory/Corbyn Brexit will impact say the NHS with regards to procurement etc? The additional costs of medicine, equipment, staffing etc will add huge amounts to the running costs just to tread water. The NHS needs additional investment of £bns as-is, we shouldn’t be wasting any of that on paying more for core supplies. Same logic applies to everything else too!

Why would you assume the existing studies haven't taken these basic things into account? Maybe you think the experts are all Brexit-loving traitors?

The tricks used to keep the wheels on after the crash are the very few that the Conservatives and Lib Dems allowed themselves under their politically motivated and economically perverse austerity programme. Labour will not face the same artificial constraints: in addition to QE, which AFAIK is still fit for purpose, they will be able to take a more rational approach to borrowing and to fiscal policy in general.

What's interesting about the more apocalyptic takes on the Corbyn-as-Enabler theme is that they take for granted a Tory win at the next election. I can't help thinking this entire conversation is a way of reviving the "Should Corbyn step aside" thread while bypassing the embarrassment of the the 2017 election. The terms are basically the same, even if some of them have been reversed (Corbyn too idealist/Corbyn too pragmatic), but it's just all more desperate.

 

[ff1d1l]

Why would you assume the existing studies haven't taken these basic things into account? Maybe you think the experts are all Brexit-loving traitors?

The tricks used to keep the wheels on after the crash are the very few that the Conservatives and Lib Dems allowed themselves under their politically motivated and economically perverse austerity programme. Labour will not face the same artificial constraints: in addition to QE, which AFAIK is still fit for purpose, they will be able to take a more rational approach to borrowing and to fiscal policy in general.

What's interesting about the more apocalyptic takes on the Corbyn-as-Enabler theme is that they take for granted a Tory win at the next election. I can't help thinking this entire conversation is a way of reviving the "Should Corbyn step aside" thread while bypassing the embarrassment of the the 2017 election. The terms are basically the same, even if some of them have been reversed (Corbyn too idealist/Corbyn too pragmatic), but it's just all more desperate.

Why would you assume they have taken this stuff into account. We're not talking a few small firms here, we're talking whole industries, and at the time the studies were made this was not the case, or envisaged.

Should Corbyn step aside? Emphatically not. Should Corbyn change his mind and listen to party members? Emphatically yes.

 

[MVV]

It must have been a tough decision. I can see the argument that in the case of a snap election to give the Tories and the gutter press any movement on brexit would probably drive a coach and horses through the Labour campaign. I guess it was toss up between going that way and holding the northern heartlands and going on a full on a cancel Brexit ticket and amassing votes in traditional conservative areas. It is a case of what is the least worst situation? Manage Brexit with a Labour Government and hopefully neuter it or risk a hard Brexit with a Conservative government. Presumably the sums were done on the marginal constituencies and the former option was the winner by a nose.

 

[jackbarron]

The damage is already happening.

You may or may not be right about Corbyn's motives but I urge you to set aside any feelings of personal betrayal you have and continue to support Labour. Many people in the country desperately need help and, IIRC, you live in one of the few constituencies where your vote could make a huge difference.

I know damage is already happening Drood and have spent some time documenting it on pfm. It is apparent in the stupid amount of time it takes to get my skin zapped at the hospital across the road, when it needs to be.

The Referendum was advisory. Corbyn and Labour chose to go with the Brexit result. They didn't have to. Now many of their supporters are trying to get them to change their mind. Ironically enough these people are from both the New Labour/Blair dynasty and the socialist side. This shows how Brexit is a more important issue than the fate of Labour or any other political party.

One of the great bits of local news was when Labour's Emma Dent Coad was elected as MP for Kensington. I hope she continues there. Because of boundary changes, I am no longer in that constituency and my vote has to be earned. A pro-Brexit party won't get it.

Jack

 

[gassor]

I'd say that's a pretty accurate description. You are Scottish I'd assumed?

You want to define people by the country they are born in. Isn't that borderline racism? As for the Tory jibe that just shows your complete lack of political insight once again.

Every time from now on that you post something that can't be supported with evidence I'll be on your case. Whether you engage is up to you. I'm more than happy to make you look silly.

 

[merlin]

Tony, have you not looked at the figures? The phrase "I keep on knocking...) comes to mind.

Hypothetical question. There is an election next week. Do you vote Labour in the hope that they will reign in the banks and tax evaders, Tory, knowing they will do neither, or another party in the knowledge that it will be nothing but a protest vote and you will get a Tory government?

 

[ff1d1l]

You want to define people by the country they are born in. Isn't that borderline racism? As for the Tory jibe that just shows your complete lack of political insight once again.

Every time from now on that you post something that can't be supported with evidence I'll be on your case. Whether you engage is up to you. I'm more than happy to make you look silly.

Whew...a post which verges on the vindictive.

What particularly got your goat, being called a Scot or a tory - or was it the supremely rara avis combination of the two? Not many of them about...

 

[Tony L]

Hypothetical question. There is an election next week. Do you vote Labour in the hope that they will reign in the banks and tax evaders, Tory, knowing they will do neither, or another party in the knowledge that it will be nothing but a protest vote and you will get a Tory government?

I would study the polls and vote tactically for whatever looked most likely to result in a hung parliament with the smaller progressive parties holding the balance of power. I do not want either a Conservative or Labour majority as I believe both would be a disaster for the country due to their ill-thought-out hard-Brexit policy. We need more sensible voices in power as well to dilute and block the extremism of either main party. Those voices are the Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru. In my seat that means Lib Dem get my vote, though the answer would be different depending on the seat. Any of them are a better bet than either main party.

 

[ff1d1l]

Tony, have you not looked at the figures? The phrase "I keep on knocking...) comes to mind.

Hypothetical question. There is an election next week. Do you vote Labour in the hope that they will reign in the banks and tax evaders, Tory, knowing they will do neither, or another party in the knowledge that it will be nothing but a protest vote and you will get a Tory government?

Hmmm interesting one...
Here in Arfon, Plaidd are the incumbents and have been for years. However last election Labour came within a few hundred of taking the seat. In retrospect, I'm glad Hywel didn't get the push - he's a good constituency MP, a nice guy, good voting record and to the left of much of Labour, particularly here in Wales, where they are a disgrace. Take Carwyn Jones, for instance - I wish someone or something would.

And compared to some better known political parties, Plaidd are, well, reliable...

 

[droodzilla]

Back OT, here's another reason why the Tories must go:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/chronically-precarious-workers/

The full report on the state of the labour market is here:

https://www.thersa.org/globalassets/pdfs/reports/rsa_7-portraits-of-modern-work-report.pdf

And here's a pretty interactive data-visualisation tool:

https://www.thersa.org/discover/pub...ecurity-and-modern-work-in-the-uk/interactive

Worth a look and worth remembering the next time a Tory drone trots out employment stats.

 

[merlin]

I would study the polls and vote tactically for whatever looked most likely to result in a hung parliament with the smaller progressive parties holding the balance of power. I do not want either a Conservative or Labour majority as I believe both would be a disaster for the country due to their ill-thought-out hard-Brexit policy. We need more sensible voices in power as well to dilute and block the extremism of either main party. Those voices are the Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru. In my seat that means Lib Dem get my vote, though the answer would be different depending on the seat. Any of them are a better bet than either main party.

You might as well just stay at home and have a Gammon rant at the TV Tony. It will be just as useful to society.

 

[Tony L]

You might as well just stay at home and have a Gammon rant at the TV Tony. It will be just as useful to society.

Quite some intellectual argument you have there, well done.

 

[merlin]

Offer me something worth giving thought to if you want one of those Tony.

 

[HarryB]

You want to define people by the country they are born in. Isn't that borderline racism? As for the Tory jibe that just shows your complete lack of political insight once again.

Every time from now on that you post something that can't be supported with evidence I'll be on your case. Whether you engage is up to you. I'm more than happy to make you look silly.

Silly man. Borderline racism? Really. That is desperation mate

So if I describe a bloke from Wales as a Welshman that's also racism is it? See how silly your comment is?

You are Scottish I take it. Your political views from what I've seen here are well to the right of centre. That makes you a Tory in my book.

Hence my description of you as a Scottish Tory. I'm more than happy to stick with that as I see no evidence to the contrary. If it bother you, tough.

I'm always happy to engage. Especially with people well out of their depth. It means I can have one hand tied behind my back, a pint in the other and watch the football . . . and still be able to run rings round you.

Crack on Scotty Tory.

 

[HarryB]

Whew...a post which verges on the vindictive.

What particularly got your goat, being called a Scot or a tory - or was it the supremely rara avis combination of the two? Not many of them about...

Not verging on the vindictive. It is vindictive. Suggesting someone is racist on the basis of my comment is the behaviour of a desperate Scottish Tory ;-)

 

[Tony L]

Offer me something worth giving thought to if you want one of those Tony.

I was perfectly serious in my response. I’d far prefer to see a coalition with the progressive parties holding the balance of power than either main party holding a majority. Ideally I’d prefer it to be a coalition with Labour than Tory, but I desperately want the Libs, SNP, Greens and PC to have a voice that is heard in the HoC as they are all far closer to my position than either major party.

I’ve no idea why you’ve done a 180 degree turn on this one. You are now arguing against points you were making a year ago to in order to defend an incoherent Corbyn position. I have remained entirely consistent, and will continue to do so as I know I’m right! I have zero interest in partisan party politics, I only ever pick the party that is closest to my own viewpoint at the point of an election. At present that is not Labour, obviously not Conservative, and given the Greens don’t tend to stand in my seat that means the Lib Dems again (despite my not having much respect for Vince Cable and thinking them pretty weak as a party at present). As ever the least worst option gets my vote!

PS It is an irrelevance anyway, you live in an exceptionally wealthy upmarket Tory area, I live in a working class Labour area, and neither of us stand a hope in hell of toppling such safe seats!

 

[HarryB]

Tony, there is no chance of any coalition. The next election is going to be a straight choice between Tory and Labour. You know in your heart that another Tory government will be a disaster for the country and there will be more punishment of ordinary working people.

You also know in your heart that a Tory Brexit will be more painful than a Labour one.

Sorted.

 

[Tony L]

Tony, there is no chance of any coalition. The next election is going to be a straight choice between Tory and Labour. You know in your heart that another Tory government will be a disaster for the country and there will be more punishment of ordinary working people.

I don’t agree at all. I am certain both Conservatives and Labour have underestimated just how many of us want to throw a spanner into any kind of ‘hard Brexit’ scenario. My bet is the voteshare of all the minor progressives will increase substantially as they are the only ones voicing the concerns of the 48% and also the young voters who have seen the door slammed on any EU prospects they had. Both Labour and Conservative look very much like ‘old people’s’ parties to me now. Archaic dinosaurs so entrenched in ideology they can no longer act in the national interest. I’ve no idea how the increased voteshare will translate into seats, but it will have some impact, and given that two out of the past three elections have resulted in a hung parliament that looks like a very likely outcome to me.

 

[ff1d1l]

I don’t agree at all. I am certain both Conservatives and Labour have underestimated just how many of us want to throw a spanner in any kind of ‘hard Brexit’. My bet is the voteshare of all the minor progressives will increase substantially as they are the only ones voicing the concerns of the 48% and also the young voters who have seen the door slammed on any EU prospects they had. Both Labour and Conservative look very much like ‘old people’s’ parties to me now. Archaic dinosaurs so entrenched in ideology they can no longer act in the national interest. I’ve no idea how the increased voteshare will translate into seats, but it will have some impact, and given that two out of the past three elections have resulted in a hung parliament that looks like a very likely outcome to me.

You bet.

 

[gassor]

Whew...a post which verges on the vindictive.

What particularly got your goat, being called a Scot or a tory - or was it the supremely rara avis combination of the two? Not many of them about...

Glad you said the bit about verging on the vindictive, I think it is. It is the words that HarryB used to another poster and I threw them back at him to see how he feels about being bullied in that manner. That's why he didn't comment on the "I'll be on your case" bit and started clutching at straws.