advertisement


What's the PM going to announce?

droodzilla said:
Absolutely. I've posted a chart of Labour's average poll ratings since Corbyn was elected leader (for the first time) at least twice. It shows a slight but unambiguous trend upwards in support for Labour until the "coup" after the EU referendum last year, when there is a catastrophic drop of about 10 percentage points. Yet the very architects of the coup have the nerve to blame Corbyn for Labour's poor showing in the polls.

I could search for the chart and post it again but, since none of the people who criticise Corbyn bothered to reply the first two times (I wonder why?), I'll save my energy.
Click to expand...

There were a few months when Labour was equalling the Tories, but it did not last long. The overall picture is one of Labour falling well below the Tories since Corbyn took over (when any opposition worth it's salt is well ahead due to mid term blues)

The overall picture is clearly set out below in this article chart.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...rates-anniversary_uk_57d66f58e4b0d45ff8723600

It's in the Huff Post as well.
 
droodzilla said:
It's not clearcut. If the DM is to be believed, the Tory manifesto will promise hard Brexit.

Good article from Alan Moore (yes, him!) here:

http://momentumnorthants.org.uk/alan-moore-statement/

I don't agree with everything he says but I strongly identify with his comments about his parents (which mirror my experience).
Click to expand...

Fine article put up by Momentum. There is a picture/poster of Alan Moore on FB asking people to vote Labour.

Jack
 
droodzilla said:
It's not clearcut. If the DM is to be believed, the Tory manifesto will promise hard Brexit.

Good article from Alan Moore (yes, him!) here:

http://momentumnorthants.org.uk/alan-moore-statement/

I don't agree with everything he says but I strongly identify with his comments about his parents (which mirror my experience).
Click to expand...

A stunning portrait at the top of that column, which matches well with the fluid vividness of the prose.
 
gassor said:
There were a few months when Labour was equalling the Tories, but it did not last long. The overall picture is one of Labour falling well below the Tories since Corbyn took over (when any opposition worth it's salt is well ahead due to mid term blues)

The overall picture is clearly set out below in this article chart.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...rates-anniversary_uk_57d66f58e4b0d45ff8723600

It's in the Huff Post as well.
Click to expand...
Here's an easier to see version of the same data:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...inion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png

Funny how we interpret things differently. Putting it as neutrally as possible, I see a narrowing of the gap between Sep 2015 and May 2016 (the early months of Corbyn's leadership). Looking at the timing, my guess is this is down to the Tax Credits debacle which Owen Smith (ironically) did a good job of pinning on the Tories. Given the unprecedented levels of venom, lies, slurs, misrepresentation and hatred directed at Corbyn from all quarters (including some in the PLP) it's something of a miracle Labour support held up at all, let alone rallied.

Then there's a sharp decline in support as the party falls apart after the EU referendum. There is room for debate about where the responsibility for that lies - personally I feel it was deeply and unforgivably irresponsible for the right of the PLP to seek to undermine Corbyn at atime when the whole of the Labour Party should have been metaphorically kicking the shit out of th Tories. The decline has continued to this day but (things can only get better?) surely will bottom out soon.

It's a sorry picture and something needs to change. I hope the GE will provide the catalyst for that change, whatever the result.
 
Workers forbidden from talking to the press at factory May visits, her Press secretary has resigned, her director of communications has quit. Meanwhile, Corbyn standing on a balcony addressing a huge cheering crowd in Liverpool.

Also, politicos in the know are saying Hammond is removing the pledge not to raise NI and taxes from the Tory manifesto and that MPs are being told "hard brexit" or nothing as the EU is making noises about any deal being reliant on keeping worker's rights.
 
droodzilla said:
Then there's a sharp decline in support as the party falls apart after the EU referendum. There is room for debate about where the responsibility for that lies - personally I feel it was deeply and unforgivably irresponsible for the right of the PLP to seek to undermine Corbyn at atime when the whole of the Labour Party should have been metaphorically kicking the shit out of th Tories. The decline has continued to this day but (things can only get better?) surely will bottom out soon.

It's a sorry picture and something needs to change. I hope the GE will provide the catalyst for that change, whatever the result.
Click to expand...

Parties at war never look good to the public I agree, but given that the party was more or less working together under Milliband, then the new leader comes in and things get messy. A lot of people would see that as the fault of the new leader, but it is open to debate. The main point is that under Corbyn the party have seldom been so unpopular and look to lose up to 100 seats in the GE. And according to the smelly Daily Express he will not resign whatever the outcome.

PS don't tell Ms Abbott.
 
gassor said:
Parties at war never look good to the public I agree, but given that the party was more or less working together under Milliband, then the new leader comes in and things get messy. A lot of people would see that as the fault of the new leader, but it is open to debate. The main point is that under Corbyn the party have seldom been so unpopular and look to lose up to 100 seats in the GE. And according to the smelly Daily Express he will not resign whatever the outcome.

PS don't tell Ms Abbott.
Click to expand...

It's interesting how, the people they all quoting as knowing their onions about elections are brilliant at guessing right in a two horse race and complete failures where there is anything remotely more nuanced. Not one pollster or pundit predicted that the far left party would gain 14 seats in Holland and hold the balance of power. Not one political commentator foresaw the backlash in Austria against the right and remember how le Penn was going to "walk it"? Now many are saying she's not even guaranteed a place in the final round it's that close and the challenger is from where? oh yes...
 
FireMoon said:
It's interesting how, the people they all quoting as knowing their onions about elections are brilliant at guessing right in a two horse race and complete failures where there is anything remotely more nuanced. Not one pollster or pundit predicted that the far left party would gain 14 seats in Holland and hold the balance of power. Not one political commentator foresaw the backlash in Austria against the right and remember how le Penn was going to "walk it"? Now many are saying she's not even guaranteed a place in the final round it's that close and the challenger is from where? oh yes...
Click to expand...

No-one has ever stated that opinion polls are supposed to be 100% accurate. It is probably impossible to remove the 3% either way margin of error. And yes the polls do change over the course of an election as with Le Pen, bit like horse racing odds over a week before a big race.
 
Election Quiz

Guess the Political Party from the manifesto pledges...

  1. Cut immigration
  2. Leave the EU
  3. Bring back grammar schools
  4. Increase military spending
  5. More “security” and “strong leadership”
  6. Foreign policy driven by “British national interest” not human rights
  7. Reduce development aid

Answer here
 
In 6 years of Tory misrule the National Debt has risen £595,000,000.000. This is £595 Billion, which is more than every single Labour government combined.

What is May's solution? She accuses Labour of wanting to bankrupt the country in the future. What a lying f***wit she is.

Jack
 
Colonic Mad have you got a squint or are you blind? Blinded by your prejudice against the Tories. On the BBC news website it says quite categorically that the Foreign Aid Bill will not be cut. The UK as far as I am aware is the only country to have enshrined in law that Foreign Aid should be 0.7% of the countries National Income as desired by the UN. This was a Tory Initiative was it not. Perhaps you could name another country that matches the UK when it comes to Foreign Aid.
 
Colonel_Mad said:
Election Quiz

Guess the Political Party from the manifesto pledges...

  1. Cut immigration
  2. Leave the EU
  3. Bring back grammar schools
  4. Increase military spending
  5. More “security” and “strong leadership”
  6. Foreign policy driven by “British national interest” not human rights
  7. Reduce development aid

Answer here
Click to expand...

BNP manifesto from 2005 only they were more "left wing" than the Tories on the NHS.
 
SteveT,
Since you ask: Sweden spends 1.4%. That doesn't include what they have spent recently on housing and educating refugees, of which they have taken many.
The Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Denmark all spend a higher % than the UK. But it's a good thing that the British government at least meets the 0.7% target.
 
SteveT said:
Colonic Mad have you got a squint or are you blind? Blinded by your prejudice against the Tories. On the BBC news website it says quite categorically that the Foreign Aid Bill will not be cut. ...
Click to expand...

It's good to see it's still a commitment and nice that there's a difference between the BNP and Conservatives this time. Well done.

Stephen
 
There is something weird going on with this whole affair.

Firstly, I suspect May called the election thinking she had it in the bag and Corbyn and labour would vote against it and May could then beat labour with the aid of media about head over it, calling them cowards, undemocratic etc etc. Problem was Corbyn said "Sure bring it on" and strangely considering how he wasn't supposed to know about it labour has gone straight into full on campaign mode. That does suggest that Corbyn had been tipped off by someone in Mays inner circle, well whats left of it as most of her key advisers have now quit.

Now we see tomorrow's S^^'s front page headline is telling the Tories no no no and had the headline "Dismay" over the prospect of tax hikes. Add to that, all of a sudden May is now saying "Oh I want the parliamentary party to write the manifesto"; when, it's supposedly already written and waiting to be revealed.

I suspect at this point, May's whole brexit strategy is well and truly stuffed. The Eu won;t do a deal apparently, without workers's rights and environmental protections being retained which means, she's already shown her hand like the rank amateur she is and big business now realises... "Oh chuff, hard brexit".

As a mate of mine commented,; "At this rate May, will do so many U turns we'l be back in the EU and signed up to the Euro by 2019"
 
FireMoon said:
There is something weird going on with this whole affair.

Firstly, I suspect May called the election thinking she had it in the bag and Corbyn and labour would vote against it and May could then beat labour with the aid of media about head over it, calling them cowards, undemocratic etc etc. Problem was Corbyn said "Sure bring it on" and strangely considering how he wasn't supposed to know about it labour has gone straight into full on campaign mode. That does suggest that Corbyn had been tipped off by someone in Mays inner circle, well whats left of it as most of her key advisers have now quit.

Now we see tomorrow's S^^'s front page headline is telling the Tories no no no and had the headline "Dismay" over the prospect of tax hikes. Add to that, all of a sudden May is now saying "Oh I want the parliamentary party to write the manifesto"; when, it's supposedly already written and waiting to be revealed.

I suspect at this point, May's whole brexit strategy is well and truly stuffed. The Eu won;t do a deal apparently, without workers's rights and environmental protections being retained which means, she's already shown her hand like the rank amateur she is and big business now realises... "Oh chuff, hard brexit".

As a mate of mine commented,; "At this rate May, will do so many U turns we'l be back in the EU and signed up to the Euro by 2019"
Click to expand...

Thank God the electorate has your suspicions and your mate's comments to go on. What could be wrong with that sort of analysis? It mystifies me that, as you point out, such a 'rank amateur' could be the longest-lived Home Sec in a generation, and Prime Minister to boot, while you are posting such enlightened commentary on a hi-fi forum.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.


advertisement


Back
Top