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German politics: a new election?

Tony L

Tony L

Administrator
Interesting things happening in Germany. Looks like the prospect for a centrist coalition has failed and Merkel may well go back to the ballot box and run it all again. Quite a risk as analysis implies doing so may only strengthen the far-right racist/fascist AFD party. BBC.

PS I remain baffled how the AFD is allowed to exist in Germany given the country’s anti-Nazi legislation. Why are they not illegal?
 
Seeker_UK said:
So much for PR then. ;-)
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Its odd isn’t it? I’ve started the thread in the hope some German folk here can giveva better indication as to what is happening. I get the impression the Liberal centre has walked out, but I don’t really understand the players in this aside from having a handle on what Merkel is (centre-right) and having watched a documentary on the violent far-right/Nazi extreme AFD. What is the impasse here?
 
What he said.

Merkel's invitation two summers ago destroyed what should have been an easy win. As I understand it. her desire to now invite the families of those who came, thereby at least tripling the number, is the major stumbling block for the FDP and would be suicide for any smaller party except the Greens, who just live in a fantasy land.
 
lennyw said:
What he said.

Merkel's invitation two summers ago destroyed what should have been an easy win. As I understand it. her desire to now invite the families of those who came, thereby at least tripling the number, is the major stumbling block for the FDP and would be suicide for any smaller party except the Greens, who just live in a fantasy land.
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Yes. Even for a blinkered 'woman of faith' like Merkel the pfennig is finally beginning to drop.
 
I got the impression Merkel was playing a longer game, i.e. she realised Germany was an ageing country and that a pension crisis was on the near horizon so viewed the refugee situation both as a humanitarian gesture and a source of future labour/tax-payers. Pretty bright as far as I’m concerned, but one should never underestimate how racist and tribal thick people are. That was her mistake.
 
Tony L said:
I got the impression Merkel was playing a longer game, i.e. she realised Germany was an ageing country and that a pension crisis was on the near horizon so viewed the refugee situation both as a humanitarian gesture and a source of future labour/tax-payers. Pretty bright as far as I’m concerned, but one should never underestimate how racist and tribal thick people are. That was her mistake.
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You're quite correct, but if you think Europeans are racist you haven't seen......
 
Beyond the immigrant issue, there is the normal erosion of power. Merkel has been in office for a long time. Her coalition partners have learned from bitter experience: they have historically done about as well from sharing power with her as the British LibDems did with Cameron, so they're not exactly enthusiastic about repeating the experience. Maybe it's time for a new chancellor: the SDP have excluded joining a coalition led by Merkel.

My guess is we will see new elections, and a new balance between centrist parties. The part I'm puzzled by is what has happened to the FDP, which seems to have shifted to the right under its new leader.
 
Is Merkel liked by her party? Our Conservatives tend to knife their leaders in the back at the very earliest opportunity. Is there likely to be a power-grab in the near future? Any front-runners?
 
I don't think the CSU have much time for her, but as they're a junior coalition partner, they don't have much say. Most of the potential CDU replacements have found reasons to get sacked (made up PhDs being a reason more than once).
 
Tony L said:
PS I remain baffled how the AFD is allowed to exist in Germany given the country’s anti-Nazi legislation. Why are they not illegal?
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The AFD is far from being a new phenomenon, decades ago Die Republikaner were led by the former Waffen-SS Franz Schönhuber. I don't remeber them ever having had a seat in the Bundestag, but they did once collect around 2 per cent of the votes, and they still exist today as a party. And the AFD are cute poodles compared to them... Both parties apparently manage to not infringe the ant-Nazi law somehow, and no matter how dangerous they are, I doubt it to be a good idea to declare them illegal, as crowds of skinheads would join them so as to 'give the government a lesson'. Germany has become the moral leader in Europe, if things turn sour in Germany I don't know who else will be able to carry the torch of freedom.
 
Cheese said:
Germany has become the moral leader in Europe, if things turn sour in Germany I don't know who else will be able to carry the torch of freedom.
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Aha, this is the moral Germany that insisted on punitive bailout terms for Greece, a country they robbed in WW2 through forced loans which were, ahem, forgiven after the war?
This is the moral Germany that allowed until very recently (ie only once exposed) the claiming of briefcases of cash and prostitutes as bribes in tax returns (VW and Siemens)? Oh, I guess you're talking about Mutti's unilateral decision to invite all and sundry to head here, without either a political mandate or permission from her fellow EU nations (which according to EU law she should first have sought). Merkel reacts like a rabbit in headlights and it's only thanks to the subsidy of the Euro on Germany's exports that there's not a lot more disquiet. Should the Euro fall, the DM return and rise to it's appropriate value, then all the so-called stability here will disappear, much like the supposed solidarity in the DDR once the wall fell.
 
If Merkel puts her own survival as Chancellor before the ability of Germany to form a government, she is toast. And it is beginning to look like she is.

After Merkel's lot, the 3 next biggest parties in the Bundestag are:
1. SPD. Ruled out another grand coalition.
2. AfD. Persona non grata for all other parties.
3. FDP. Just walked out of coalition talks.

A new election is unlikely to yield a radically different result, so is a dead end, just delaying the inevitable. One difference between the German and UK systems is that in Germany it is the head of state, the German President, not the Chancellor or parliament, who gets to decide if and when to call a new election, and his job is to put the German national interest above that of any party or party leader.
 
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