jtrade
pfm Member
I would have thought that anyone old enough to remember the “ worst recent” part of the conflict - which certainly did spill over onto the mainland - would totally abhor this possibility.
Dump The Guardian!
- Thread starter maxflinn
- Start date
I would have thought that anyone old enough to remember the “ worst recent” part of the conflict - which certainly did spill over onto the mainland - would totally abhor this possibility.
Tony L
Administrator
I’m obviously no expert and actually have little interest in NI, but as I understand it the problem is the border between north and south. Any hard borders or checks would breach the GFA, any soft border would breach EU/Schengen, so catch 22. I’ve heard some fruitloop Tories suggest the hard border would be between the whole of Ireland and England/Scotland/Wales, but that won’t work either as it would leave NI out of the EU but still in the common market trading and free movement area without tariffs etc. The whole thing is unworkable without making some enormous change somewhere, and this is an area that really does not like change!
jtrade
pfm Member
100% agree with the above... but regret that I consider the rest of your post typically myopic anti-Tory “blame gaming”.
I just don’t understand how so many intelligent people can’t see that Britain has suffered under endless political incompetence of both major parties... but we’re still not “destroyed “ & a great deal better off than many other Western European countries.
I don’t know what the solution is & I’m somewhat apolitical, I just don’t see it in terms of Labour vs Tory - the incompetence of both seems mind-bending.. I do feel the Blair overstay > Brown > then finally Ed rather David Milliband was the greatest wrong turning in recent years, without which there would likely not have been the current Tory fiasco.
Now, where did I leave my crash helmet & body armour.... ?
glancaster
In the silicon vale
That's the claim I'm rather doubtful of. Having skim read the North/South strand of the GFA I can't find anything like that explicitly, but like you I'm no expert.
GFA text: http://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/today/good_friday/full_text.html
Having said that I don't think the nature of the border is ever mentioned explicitly, one clear aim of the GFA is to engender close cooperation between North and South, trying to resolve issues mutually, and Brexit is causing real tension in that relationship. The breakdown of devolved government, and the Tory/DUP deal are further sources of tension in NI.
Kind regards
- Garry
glancaster
In the silicon vale
So far the buy-out has been remarkably good value from the Tory point of view. One government majority, total zero pounds spent. Making the £1bn conditional on resumption of power sharing is undoubtedly one of the more cunning & benign aspects of the deal - perhaps there is some hope for HMG's negotiation skills after all, eh?
kendo
Prussian bot
Possibly refraining in order to try and get the Stormont government up and running again?
Just my thoughts with no great insight.
gassor
There may be more posts after this.
Even apart from the £20b bung to the DUP, NI is the most heavily subsidised part of the UK. (Not only the UK but the EU pump millions into NI in farming subsidies). The North would rely on the Republic to replace the UK subsidies and I'm not sure they could afford it without creating serious problems for themselves. Remaining part of the UK means losing out on the EU subsidies which the UK will additionally have to pick up the tab for.
tones
Tones deaf
There is no provision that would be breached. The EU is frequently mentioned in the GFA, as the UK and Ireland are partners, but, as the EU document on the subject put it:
The Good Friday Agreement has successfully managed (but not resolved) Northern Ireland’s ethno-national divisions. The Agreement contains three strands: the first covering political arrangements within Northern Ireland; the second covering institutional relationships between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (the all-island dimension) and the third covering British-Irish relationships, also embracing other devolved administrations within the islands of Britain and Ireland. The Agreement assumes continuing EU membership for both the UK and Ireland but binds neither explicitly to maintaining that membership. The 2016 Belfast High Court case outlined in Section 1 ruled that there was nothing in the Good Friday Agreement to prevent the triggering of Article 50. 583 116 That High Court in Belfast declared in October 2016 that it would be an over-statement to suggest that EU membership was a constitutional bulwark central to the Good Friday Agreement, which would be breached by notification of Article 50. This, the Court asserted, would be to ‘elevate ... [EU membership] over and beyond its true contextual position’.16 In its January 2017 verdict, the UK Supreme Court upheld the Belfast High Court position: the principle of consent for constitutional change contained in the Good Friday Agreement referred to whether Northern Ireland remained in the UK or unified with the rest of Ireland. It did not refer to EU membership or withdrawal.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2017/583116/IPOL_BRI(2017)583116_EN.pdf
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
Perhaps the question should be "how can we leave the EU without failing to maintain one or other essential supporting pillar of the GFA? The main pillars being the common travel area, and the customs union. Remove either, and you create a requirement for border controls, which brings the GFA tumbling off its pedestal. So it's not that leaving the EU is contrary to the GFA so much as that leaving the EU is likely to be fatal to the GFA.
glancaster
In the silicon vale
The GFA does not mention either the common travel area or the customs union, even once. It does mention the EU, quite a lot, which tones' post addresses.
There is little doubt, whatever the wording of the GFA, that leaving the EU is going to put strain on the NI peace. One response to this is to say, OK, we can't leave the EU then. Many would of course be happy with that conclusion but given where we are now, and the UK government's stated direction, it seems likely that we are in fact going to leave the EU, including the single market and customs union. Therefore, I think it is more realistic to say that we recognise now that this means the reintroduction of a North/South customs border, and we better spend the remaining time before Brexit day planning how we can minimise the negative effects of this on the fragile peace.
Kind regards
- Garry
droodzilla
pfm Member
A middle way would be to remain in the SM and CU but that won't satisy the Brexit ultras. So I too predict the return of a hard border. Hopefully the softest of hard borders, if such a thing is possible.
Sue Pertwee-Tyr
Accuphase all the way down
I'm not saying that the CTA or CU are explicitly mentioned in the GFA, it's rather more that these are the pillars that enable the GFA to function, because they work together to remove the need for a 'hard' border between North and South. They are implicit pillars supporting the GFA, rather than explicit ones.
PsB
Citizen of Nowhere™
This is the part that I find bonkers: there was nothing in the Leave clause to suggest that leaving the customs union was going to be mandatory. This is totally discretionary - a direction the current cabinet has taken probably to minimise intra-Tory stresses and pacify its backers, but which places tremendous stresses not only on all goods exporters and importers in the UK but also on third parties like Ireland. Even Turkey is in a form of customs union with the EU, but the UK wants out. There are dire warnings about the consequences, but this government just ploughs on. Weird.
TheDecameron
Unicorns fart glitter.
But Alto Adige is prosperous, no?
Seanm
pfm Member
The Troubles ended because people were sick of them not because Bono got Trimble and Hume to shake hands or whatever. Don't see any real appetite for going back to all that, although things might get a little edgy. However, worth noting that Gove was and apparently still is opposed to the GFA on principle. He is much madder and thicker even than he seems and the rest of that crew are of course sociopaths. I've no doubt they'd have a go at stirring up trouble given the chance, especially given how well the Ireland thing worked out for the Tories during the GE. Definitely some English who would like to turn the clock back, they're the ones to worry about.
Swamp Thing
Remainiac Terrorist
If Brexit means Brexit (which will inevitably lead to leaving the customs union), and anything other than a free border between NI and Eire is unthinkable, then either NI has to be ceded to Ireland or the UK will have to invade Ireland. The Irish military is very small. And not in NATO. It would probably be cheaper in the short term to invade rather than build a wall. Of course the "cheapest" thing in the long term is for the UK is give NI away. If it wasn't for the border problem we could see if they wanted Wales as well.
Daily Mash: Seriously though, Northern Ireland, says EU