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Brexit: Article 50 to be triggered 29 March

Joe Hutch said:
Sometimes Labour, latterly LibDem, never Tories. I switched to the LibDems because a) they were more committed to staying in the EU and b) they opposed the invasion of Iraq. I was out of the country at the time of the last General Election, and didn't vote for anyone. Labour won my constituency from the LibDems at the Election.
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I had a similar tack. Voted for Lib Dem in 2010. Never would again. It will be either Green or Labour in future.

Jack
 
glancaster said:
So, the most likely timetable is, as Joe H says, Brexit in March 2019.

To fill in a bit more detail, this means:

March 2017: Article 50 invoked.

April 2017 to approx. September 2018: negotiations, largely in secret ('no running commentary', remember).

Approx. October 2018 - approx. February 2019. Ratification of Brexit agreement in UK, EU and EU27 national parliaments. If not unanimously agreed (and that's a lot of ducks to get in a row), then hard Brexit default, with UK still leaving.

March 2019: Brexit.

I would hope there might be an early interim agreement over the fates of those living 'in the wrong place', but it's looking more and more like a forlorn hope at this point.

Anyone see it panning out significantly differently?
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No running commentary from the UK, maybe, but I bet the Europeans will leak. And the MEPs - including UKIP - get to vote on the deal, which is more than our MPs get to do.

Given that David Davis said he hadn't costed the implications of no deal, and the sheer amount of work involved in actually getting a trade deal (trade deal won't be done in two years, just the divorce), I wouldn't be surprised if the government was aiming for no deal and blaming it all on the EU. May is beholden only to our right-wing press (look how fast she u-turned over NICS), so this should suit her. Hope I'm wrong.
 
Vinniemac said:
No running commentary from the UK, maybe, but I bet the Europeans will leak.
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Agreed, the Euro's will leak big time, it's the nature of the beast.

AND, they'll leak to their advantage knowing that the "right of reply" will be limited...I am investing all my savings in print...we're going to make a fortune...
 
Chaps

Whether we like it or not, the Brexiters won the referendum fair and square. I don't like it either but you have to go with the will of the majority.

Moaning about Article 50 is not going to do anything, in fact it makes us look like a bunch of brain dead losers.

If you voted to remain, the one thing you can say to the brexit negotiators is that you are going to hold them to their promise that things will not get worse. So set them some targets and hold them to it.

Are the new trading arrangements going to bring in the same volume of exports?

What are the new immigration controls and how are they going to overcome skills shortages.

How much money from EU subscriptions is going to be diverted to the NHS and what is the timetable ?

What about learning experiences for graduates trying to broaden their experiences ?

How is the new legislation process going to work ?

How do we link WTO to EU regs ?

The list is endless and this is why 2 years is a no hoper. However instead of just squawking and feeling sorry for yourselves, start setting targets for the brexiters to agree with the EU and hold them account if they fail to meet them.

To many failures could trigger a second referendum and that would put the wind up both the brexiters and the EU.

You are the architects of your own future, so start behaving like adults and start setting targets for Davies & Co to aim for. Those in Parliament who have stated they are still against brexit, ie the LibDems and Greens have been remarkable silent in this.

Even Corbyn who is going with the will of the people could at least set a decent example and make suggestions as to what the minimum standards of acceptance should be but he also says nothing. This does not put remainers in a good light.

Mick
 
DavidY80 said:
So can we expect the pound to plummet again on the 29th?
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I expect it's already priced in - I mean who didn't / doesn't expect article 50 to happen.

The pound may plummet if it looks like negotiations are going south during the next year. I imagine it could be a pretty volatile currency for the next few years before it settles either back up around $1.50 if a good deal is struck, or nearer $1 if a bad / no deal occurs.
 
Does this warrant a new thread and another 50 pages of the same cyclic arguments.

Is this really shock news or come as a surprise to anyone?
 
Funny that Philip Hammond did a U-turn on scrapping the raising of NI for the self-employed because it was in contradiction to the Conservative party manifesto but there isn't such a hullabaloo about Theresa May planning to take us out of the Single Market, also against the manifesto.

I also fear she is going for the hardest Brexit possible and will blame the EU when/if it all goes wrong.
 
Mick P said:
You are the architects of your own future, so start behaving like adults and start setting targets for Davies & Co to aim for. Those in Parliament who have stated they are still against brexit, ie the LibDems and Greens have been remarkable silent in this.
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So Mick, as our resident Tory stooge and propagandist what are you doing to thwart or impede the reckless and almost certainly disastrous path your political party is taking this country on.

PS I'm resigned to the hard-Tory Brexit disaster. There is nothing I can do about it, but I will with every fibre of my being ensure the Conservative Party carry the can for it - this shit is yours, you and your party own it outright!
 
They're going to hard sell the propaganda to the contrary, but Ms May will accept the same deal as Norway and Switzerland. There really isn't any other choice.
 
avole said:
They're going to hard sell the propaganda to the contrary, but Ms May will accept the same deal as Norway and Switzerland. There really isn't any other choice.
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We can only hope. Its going to be a complete train wreck any other way.
 
avole said:
They're going to hard sell the propaganda to the contrary, but Ms May will accept the same deal as Norway and Switzerland. There really isn't any other choice.
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I do hope so. if we end up here, I'll be quite relaxed about the whole issue.
 
I give Humpty Dumpty the final say (it might as well be May in a Humpty costume)-

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that's all.”

I also note the use of the decimal fraction in the original post. I believe the member is in De Nile about Brexit and could take a leaf from Mick's book- gerroverit.
 
London Lad said:
Brits have been living and working all over Europe (and the other 167 ish countries of the world for that matter) for years prior to us joining the EU, its not going to change now.
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Sure, but specifically about EU27 citizens working in the UK, and UK citizens working in the EU27, they are mostly allowed to do that at the moment because of EU 'free movement' rules. EU rules that will no longer apply to them post-Brexit.

I'm not sure whether you are just saying you are confident that an agreement (or a load of unilateral declarations) will be reached to ensure their rights to do that carry on post-Brexit, or whether for some reason you don't think any agreement/UD is needed?

Kind regards

- Garry
 
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